{
 "releve_le": "2026-10-08",
 "_licence": "CC BY 4.0 — calcul Stéphane Lalut ; sources AFT, Eurostat, BCE, Banque de France, Commission européenne",
 "meta": {
  "page": "https://stephane-lalut.com/inflation-et-dette-publique/",
  "licence": "CC BY 4.0",
  "perimetre": "dette négociable de l'État à taux fixe au 31/12/2020 (OAT à taux fixe et BTF), flux promis (coupons et principal)",
  "numeraire": "euros de 2020 aux prix à la consommation français (IPCH, moyenne annuelle 2020)",
  "contrefactuel": "inflation anticipée début 2021 ; choc fermé : après décembre 2023, l'écart de niveau des prix persiste",
  "source_calcul": "dépôt de recherche de l'auteur, scripts/v3.py ; extrait figé scripts/sources_inflation_dette/ (SHA256SUMS)"
 },
 "calendrier": {
  "2021": 3.7,
  "2022": 12.9,
  "2023": 30.2,
  "2024": 42.9,
  "2025": 58.6,
  "2026": 73.8,
  "2027": 82.9,
  "2028": 91.7,
  "2029": 103.0,
  "2030": 110.6,
  "2031": 115.6,
  "2032": 119.3,
  "2033": 120.0,
  "2034": 123.6,
  "2035": 126.5,
  "2036": 129.9,
  "2037": 130.4,
  "2038": 132.9,
  "2039": 135.3,
  "2040": 136.4,
  "2041": 139.4,
  "2042": 139.6,
  "2043": 139.9,
  "2044": 140.1,
  "2045": 142.0,
  "2046": 142.2,
  "2047": 142.4,
  "2048": 144.4,
  "2049": 144.5,
  "2050": 146.5,
  "2051": 146.6,
  "2052": 147.8,
  "2053": 147.9,
  "2054": 148.0,
  "2055": 149.1,
  "2056": 149.1,
  "2057": 149.2,
  "2058": 149.2,
  "2059": 149.3,
  "2060": 150.2,
  "2061": 150.2,
  "2062": 150.2,
  "2063": 150.2,
  "2064": 150.2,
  "2065": 150.2,
  "2066": 150.8
 },
 "famille_A": {
  "SPF BCE, 1er trimestre 2021 (zone euro)": {
   "r=-1%": 166.1,
   "r=0%": 150.8,
   "r=+1%": 137.9
  },
  "Banque de France, décembre 2020": {
   "r=-1%": 188.9,
   "r=0%": 171.5,
   "r=+1%": 156.8
  },
  "Commission, automne 2020 (2023 = 1,5, règle)": {
   "r=-1%": 162.5,
   "r=0%": 147.5,
   "r=+1%": 134.9
  },
  "Commission, hiver 2021 (2023 = 1,5, règle)": {
   "r=-1%": 158.7,
   "r=0%": 144.1,
   "r=+1%": 131.8
  }
 },
 "famille_B": {
  "point mort France 10 ans au 31/12/2020 (0,861, plat)": 174.8,
  "point mort zone euro 10 ans au 31/12/2020 (1,162, plat)": 157.3
 },
 "resultats": {
  "central": 150.8,
  "moyennes_annuelles": 143.2,
  "deflateur": [
   79.5,
   92.4
  ],
  "indexes_paires_jumelles": 19.8,
  "consolide_2023": 149.0,
  "consolide_2025": 113.9
 },
 "achats_banque_centrale": {
  "perimetre": "dette négociable de l'État à taux fixe (AFT, ligne à ligne, fin de mois) ; titres de l'État détenus par la Banque de France, tous portefeuilles (Webstat), au nominal",
  "regle": "décision (UE) 2016/2248 : titres détenus réputés rapporter le taux de référence de la BCE dans le revenu mis en commun",
  "source_calcul": "dépôt de recherche de l'auteur, chantier QE et maturité consolidée (VERDICT.md) ; extrait figé scripts/sources_qe_maturite/ (SHA256SUMS)",
  "fin_2022": {
   "surcout_1an_marche": 2.75,
   "surcout_1an_consolide": 7.64,
   "surcout_5ans_marche": 9.31,
   "surcout_5ans_consolide": 12.35
  },
  "portage_net_mdeur": {
   "2016_2022": 14.2,
   "2023_2025": -54.9,
   "solde": -40.7,
   "apres_partage_total": -37.7,
   "apres_partage_ligne_des_titres": -44.2
  },
  "rapport_pays_max": {
   "DE": 2.091,
   "ES": 2.85,
   "FR": 2.227,
   "IT": 1.908
  }
 },
 "affichage": {
  "t": "150",
  "t_exact": "150,8",
  "t_annuel": "143,2",
  "pts_pib": "6,5",
  "gap23": "10,8",
  "a_bas": "145",
  "a_haut": "170",
  "a_tout_bas": "130",
  "a_tout_haut": "190",
  "spf": "150,8",
  "bdf": "171,5",
  "ce_aut": "147,5",
  "ce_hiv": "144,1",
  "b_fr": "174,8",
  "b_eu": "157,3",
  "defl_bas": "80",
  "defl_haut": "92",
  "demi": "2027",
  "cum23": "30",
  "part23": "20",
  "cum27": "83",
  "part27": "55",
  "cum35": "126",
  "fin": "2066",
  "idx": "20",
  "idx_j": "19,8",
  "idx_1": "20,1",
  "idx_tot": "22,8",
  "idx_ecart": "3,0",
  "idx_encours": "220",
  "idx_n": "17",
  "charge22": "23",
  "charge_cum": "49,5",
  "s_bdf": "23",
  "cons23": "149",
  "cons25": "114",
  "pal_rapport": "2,33",
  "pal_residu": "13",
  "pal_explique": "87",
  "part_non_residents": "50",
  "part_BdF": "23",
  "part_banques": "7",
  "part_assureurs": "17",
  "part_OPC": "1",
  "alloc_non_residents": "76",
  "alloc_BdF": "35",
  "alloc_banques": "10",
  "alloc_assureurs": "26",
  "alloc_OPC": "2",
  "part_autres": "1",
  "alloc_autres": "2",
  "part_fonds_autres": "3",
  "alloc_fonds_autres": "4",
  "qe_atr15": "6,8",
  "qe_atr22": "8,5",
  "qe_aj_min": "6,3",
  "qe_aj_max": "7,1",
  "qe_em14": "8,8",
  "qe_em_min": "10,2",
  "qe_em_max": "12,5",
  "qe_sc1": "7,6",
  "qe_sm1": "2,75",
  "qe_sc1_pib": "0,29",
  "qe_r1": "2,8",
  "qe_sc5": "12,4",
  "qe_sm5": "9,3",
  "qe_r5": "1,3",
  "qe_dern": "juin 2026",
  "qe_sc1_d": "7,3",
  "qe_sm1_d": "3,6",
  "qe_r_d": "2,0",
  "qe_h22": "28",
  "qe_h_d": "17",
  "qe_t4_2015_bas": "1,1",
  "qe_t4_2015_haut": "1,35",
  "qe_t4_bas": "1,9",
  "qe_t4_haut": "2,9",
  "qe_t4_fr": "2,2",
  "qe_gain": "14",
  "qe_cout": "55",
  "qe_solde": "41",
  "qe_net_bas": "38",
  "qe_net_haut": "44",
  "qe_rdt_min": "0,4",
  "qe_rdt_max": "0,9",
  "qe_tref_max": "4",
  "qe_bdf_ro_avant": "45,7",
  "qe_bdf_ro_apres": "30,3",
  "qe_bdf_verse": "31,8",
  "qe_ocde_effet": "1,61",
  "qe_nous_effet": "1,75",
  "qe_ocde_aj": "6,3",
  "qe_e1_max": "2,1",
  "qe_e1_date": "d’avril à juillet 2022"
 },
 "affichage_en": {
  "t": "150",
  "t_exact": "150.8",
  "t_annuel": "143.2",
  "pts_pib": "6.5",
  "gap23": "10.8",
  "a_bas": "145",
  "a_haut": "170",
  "a_tout_bas": "130",
  "a_tout_haut": "190",
  "spf": "150.8",
  "bdf": "171.5",
  "ce_aut": "147.5",
  "ce_hiv": "144.1",
  "b_fr": "174.8",
  "b_eu": "157.3",
  "defl_bas": "80",
  "defl_haut": "92",
  "demi": "2027",
  "cum23": "30",
  "part23": "20",
  "cum27": "83",
  "part27": "55",
  "cum35": "126",
  "fin": "2066",
  "idx": "20",
  "idx_j": "19.8",
  "idx_1": "20.1",
  "idx_tot": "22.8",
  "idx_ecart": "3.0",
  "idx_encours": "220",
  "idx_n": "17",
  "charge22": "23",
  "charge_cum": "49.5",
  "s_bdf": "23",
  "cons23": "149",
  "cons25": "114",
  "pal_rapport": "2.33",
  "pal_residu": "13",
  "pal_explique": "87",
  "part_non_residents": "50",
  "part_BdF": "23",
  "part_banques": "7",
  "part_assureurs": "17",
  "part_OPC": "1",
  "alloc_non_residents": "76",
  "alloc_BdF": "35",
  "alloc_banques": "10",
  "alloc_assureurs": "26",
  "alloc_OPC": "2",
  "part_autres": "1",
  "alloc_autres": "2",
  "part_fonds_autres": "3",
  "alloc_fonds_autres": "4",
  "qe_atr15": "6.8",
  "qe_atr22": "8.5",
  "qe_aj_min": "6.3",
  "qe_aj_max": "7.1",
  "qe_em14": "8.8",
  "qe_em_min": "10.2",
  "qe_em_max": "12.5",
  "qe_sc1": "7.6",
  "qe_sm1": "2.75",
  "qe_sc1_pib": "0.29",
  "qe_r1": "2.8",
  "qe_sc5": "12.4",
  "qe_sm5": "9.3",
  "qe_r5": "1.3",
  "qe_dern": "June 2026",
  "qe_sc1_d": "7.3",
  "qe_sm1_d": "3.6",
  "qe_r_d": "2.0",
  "qe_h22": "28",
  "qe_h_d": "17",
  "qe_t4_2015_bas": "1.1",
  "qe_t4_2015_haut": "1.35",
  "qe_t4_bas": "1.9",
  "qe_t4_haut": "2.9",
  "qe_t4_fr": "2.2",
  "qe_gain": "14",
  "qe_cout": "55",
  "qe_solde": "41",
  "qe_net_bas": "38",
  "qe_net_haut": "44",
  "qe_rdt_min": "0.4",
  "qe_rdt_max": "0.9",
  "qe_tref_max": "4",
  "qe_bdf_ro_avant": "45.7",
  "qe_bdf_ro_apres": "30.3",
  "qe_bdf_verse": "31.8",
  "qe_ocde_effet": "1.61",
  "qe_nous_effet": "1.75",
  "qe_ocde_aj": "6.3",
  "qe_e1_max": "2.1",
  "qe_e1_date": "from April to July 2022"
 }
}